Quick Answer
Moneyline bets are on which team wins outright. Spread bets are on whether a team wins by a certain margin. Neither is universally better—choose based on your confidence, the spread size, and the sport you're betting.
Understanding the Basics
What is a Moneyline Bet?
A moneyline bet is the simplest form of sports wagering—you're betting on which team will win the game outright. The margin of victory doesn't matter; your team just needs to win.
Moneyline odds reflect each team's probability of winning. Favorites have negative odds (bet more to win less), while underdogs have positive odds (bet less to win more).
What is a Spread Bet?
A point spread bet levels the playing field by giving the underdog a head start. You're not betting on who wins, but whether a team will "cover the spread."
The favorite must win by more than the spread, while the underdog must either win outright or lose by less than the spread. Both sides typically have similar odds (around -110).
Key Differences Explained
| Factor | Moneyline | Point Spread |
|---|---|---|
| Win Condition | Team wins outright | Team covers the spread |
| Margin Matters | No | Yes |
| Typical Favorite Odds | -150 to -500+ | -110 |
| Typical Underdog Odds | +130 to +400+ | -110 |
| Risk on Favorites | Lower (just win) | Higher (must win by X) |
| Risk on Underdogs | Higher (must win) | Lower (can lose close) |
When to Bet the Moneyline
Moneyline betting makes the most sense in these situations:
1. Backing Underdogs You Believe Can Win
If you genuinely believe an underdog can win outright, the moneyline offers superior value. Why settle for +110 on a spread when you can get +180 on a moneyline for a team you think will win?
2. Close Games with Small Spreads
When the spread is 3 points or less, moneyline favorites become more attractive. The difference between winning by 1 and winning by 4 often comes down to late-game situations outside the team's control.
3. Hockey and Baseball
In low-scoring sports, moneylines are the standard. Spreads exist (run lines in baseball, puck lines in hockey) but carry significantly different risk profiles. Most sharp bettors prefer moneylines in these sports.
Example: Moneyline Value
If you believe the Jets can pull the upset, the +220 moneyline returns $220 on a $100 bet, compared to just $91 on the spread. That's 2.4x the profit if they win outright.
When to Bet the Spread
Spread betting offers advantages in these scenarios:
1. Betting on Heavy Favorites
When a favorite has moneyline odds of -200 or worse, the spread almost always offers better value. Risking $300 to win $100 on a moneyline is brutal if the favorite loses—spread bets keep your risk more manageable.
2. When You're Uncertain About Outright Winner
If you think a team is better but not confident they'll win, taking points provides a cushion. The underdog can lose by a field goal and you still cash.
3. Football and Basketball
High-scoring sports with significant point differentials make spread betting more practical. A 7-point spread in football or 8-point spread in basketball represents meaningful margins.
Example: Spread Value
Betting the Chiefs -7 at -110 risks only $110 to win $100. The moneyline risks $320 to win just $100. Even if the Chiefs win by exactly 7 (push), you get your money back.
Payout Comparison
Favorite Payouts ($100 bet)
| Spread | Spread Payout | ML Odds | ML Payout |
|---|---|---|---|
| -3 | $91 | -150 | $67 |
| -7 | $91 | -300 | $33 |
| -10 | $91 | -450 | $22 |
| -14 | $91 | -700 | $14 |
Notice how spread payouts remain consistent regardless of the margin, while moneyline payouts vary dramatically based on the mismatch between teams.
Sport-by-Sport Analysis
NFL Football
Most common: Spread betting. Football's scoring system (3s and 7s) makes spreads highly relevant. Key numbers create distinct value opportunities. Moneylines work best for small favorites (-3 or less) and live underdog plays.
NBA Basketball
Most common: Spread betting. High-scoring games with frequent lead changes make spreads practical. However, NBA moneylines on moderate underdogs (+4 to +8) can offer excellent value.
MLB Baseball
Most common: Moneyline betting. Baseball's run line (+/- 1.5) is too binary for most situations. Moneylines dominate because single-run games are common.
NHL Hockey
Most common: Moneyline betting. Like baseball, hockey's puck line (+/- 1.5) carries significant risk. Empty-net goals make the last goal unpredictable.
Making Your Decision
Choose Moneyline When:
- • You believe an underdog will win outright
- • The favorite is less than 3-point favorite
- • Betting baseball or hockey
- • The moneyline offers +150 or better on a team you like
- • You want simple win/lose outcomes
Choose Spread When:
- • Backing a heavy favorite (-200 or worse moneyline)
- • You think a game will be close but aren't sure who wins
- • The spread crosses a key number in your favor
- • Betting football or basketball
- • You want more consistent, even-money payouts
Conclusion
There's no universally "better" choice between moneyline and spread betting—the right choice depends on the specific game, your confidence level, and where you see value.
Smart bettors analyze both options for every game and choose based on the math, not habit. Sometimes the spread offers better value; sometimes the moneyline does. Your job is to identify which and bet accordingly.
Start by tracking your results on both bet types. Over time, you'll develop intuition for when each offers the best opportunity.