Quick Answer
A point spread is a handicap that levels the playing field between two teams. The favorite gives points (e.g., -7) and the underdog receives points (e.g., +7). To win your bet, the favorite must win by more than the spread, or the underdog must lose by less than the spread (or win outright).
How Point Spreads Work
Sportsbooks set point spreads to create balanced action on both sides. The spread represents the expected margin of victory.
Example: NFL Point Spread
Chiefs -7: Must win by 8+ points to cover
Broncos +7: Can lose by up to 6 points and still cover (or win outright)
Chiefs win by exactly 7: Push - all bets refunded
Understanding Favorites and Underdogs
The team expected to win
- Gives points to the underdog
- Must win by more than the spread
- Example: -7 means win by 8+
The team expected to lose
- Receives points as a cushion
- Can lose by less than spread
- Example: +7 means lose by 6 or less, or win
What Does "Covering the Spread" Mean?
A team "covers the spread" when they beat the point spread handicap. Here are examples:
Cover Examples (Chiefs -7 vs Broncos +7)
Key Numbers in NFL Spread Betting
Certain margins of victory occur more frequently in NFL games. These "key numbers" are critical for spread betting:
Spreads of 3 and 7 are the most valuable to be on the right side of.
Half-Point Spreads
Spreads often include half-points (like -3.5 or +6.5) to eliminate the possibility of a push. This is called the "hook."
Must win by 4+ points. No push possible.
Can lose by 3 points and still win. No push possible.
Buying and Selling Points
Many sportsbooks let you buy or sell points on the spread, adjusting odds accordingly:
- Buying points: Move the spread in your favor for worse odds (e.g., -3.5 to -3 costs extra juice)
- Selling points: Move the spread against you for better odds (e.g., +3 to +2.5 improves payout)
Buying Points Warning
Buying points is usually -EV (negative expected value). The only exceptions are buying onto or off key numbers like 3 and 7 in NFL games. Most recreational bettors buy points too often.
Spread Betting Strategies
1. Line Shop for the Best Number
Getting Chiefs -6.5 instead of -7 makes a huge difference. Compare spreads across multiple sportsbooks.
2. Understand Line Movement
Lines move based on betting action and news. Sharp money often moves lines before the public bets.
3. Focus on Key Numbers
In NFL, getting +3 instead of +2.5 or +7 instead of +6.5 significantly impacts long-term results.
4. Consider Home Field Advantage
NFL home field is worth about 2.5-3 points. NBA home court is worth about 3-4 points historically.
Key Takeaways
- ✓Point spreads level the playing field between mismatched teams
- ✓Favorites must win by more than the spread; underdogs can lose by less
- ✓Key numbers in NFL are 3 and 7 - be on the right side of these
- ✓Shop for the best lines - half a point matters long-term
- ✓Avoid buying points except around key numbers